Covid19 confirmed cases.
Interactive Map: Activate Sonora, Mexico, USA or World layer below, to display data accordingly
Source: Own estimation based on datos abiertos.Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data. World and USA data compiled by Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset.Note: Daily Updated data.
Data source Warning: There are important differences in the number of cases reported by health authorities, particularly between the state level and the federal Goverment sources. The latter providing lower figures. See for example Sonora state, which is reportig 88 cases for 13/04/2020, while the oficial data base reports 72 cases for the same date.
Covid19 arround the world.
Pin represents afected countries, purple indicates the highest hit country.
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data. World and USA data compiled by Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset.Note: Daily Updated data.
Latin American Countries
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
Brazil is the more affected country in the Latin American region by April 10th. Triplicating the number of cases that its predecessor Chile reports. What kind of measures are these countries implementing? Are this countries appliying the same preventive controls? such as social distancing, border closings, mobillity restictions? The different control approaches may provide clues to better undestend the virus spread rate.
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
While, absolute measures show important patterns, the only provide one side of the contagion process. We need relative inicators to control for population size in each area.
Northern Border States
Source: Own estimation based on oficial Mexican Government data Dirección General de Epidemiología.
The covid19 confirmed cases path for the border states is showing a clear indication of different results of local containment measures for the spread of the virus. While, during the initial outbreak, Nuevo León (a state that host Monterrey, the third largest Metropolitan area in the country) had been the main focus of contagion at the border, the pattern dramatically changed by April 5th, when Baja California take off.
What kind of measures are working in Nuevo León, a state that appears to have flatten the curve, what lessons can be learned from this state´s public health control efforts. And more importantly, what factors are driving Baja California as a rapid growth area.
Southern Border States
Source: Own estimation based on oficial Mexican Government data Dirección General de Epidemiología.
The 100th cases threshold.
Northern border states
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
Southern border states
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
Baja California was the first border state to reach the 100th case threshold, which occurred on April 06 2020.
Two days latter, the number of cases has doubled to 225.
While at the southern border, Quintana Roo has become a clear focus of attention. Tabasco and Campeche are showing the greatest spread rates at the regional level already reaching the 100th case threshold since April, 6th, 2020.
Are there any significant differences between patient´s age distribution between states?
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
The patient mean age is 45 years old, although no significant diferences across gender are found at this moment 2020-04-08, with an average age of 45 years for the Female population and 46 for Males.
We find that more Males than females are being infected. 1035 Females while 1396 Males are reported since the first case was documented in the country.
Given the highly infectious nature of the virus and the labor market dynamics, a social determinant linked to a greater mobility for males, provides a research area that requires a formal empirical validation.
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
The t test estimation identifies specific average patient age across states. Althought not all states exhibit a statistical diffence, we can observe an important fact, covid19 is mainly affecting productive age population in a range from 38 years old to 53. The spread of the CI’s indicates impacts in an important share of young population in somestates, including Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, and Baja California Sur.
What can be learned from Lethality rates at the state level?
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
Is the Covid19 growth curve flattening yet? Evidence from Mexico.
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
With a 734% growth in 46 days, and a lethality of 6.47% of the cases, it seems like Mexico is no where near controling the pandemic at the country level. However taking a look at daily growth rates indicate a rather less critic scenario, with signs of a drecreasing trend, that allready reached it’s peak at March 13th.
Daily growth rates for covid19 cases reported in Mexico.
Source: Own estimation based on Dirección General de Epidemiología, oficial Mexican Government data.
The pattern suggests a slowing trend with an average daily growth rate of 16.1% considering the 46 days since the first case reported in the country. In addition, we can see an important lag in the public health authority’s reaction with a health emergency declaration made 17 days after the country’s covid19 cases reached its peak daily growth rate.
References:
Data set compilation by Gabriel Alfonso Carranco-Sapiéns, Physics undergrad at the Science School and associate student at the Physics Institute of the National Autonomous Univesity of Mexico (UNAM)), base on official data from daily technical press reports. Github repository.